When trying to predict the future price of bitcoin, it’s impossible to do so without first looking at its past.
No matter how it’s examined, the cyclical nature of bitcoin’s price action can’t be ignored especially when considering its notorious “boom and bust” cycles.
If the latest plunge below the long-lasting support level of $6,000 after an explosive rise to nearly $20,000 is any indication, it’s clear the history repeating trend has yet to cease. If the cyclical nature of bitcoin is indeed alive and well, then, in all likelyhood, the current bubble will reach a similar conclusion as was the case with past bubbles.
This line of thought is potentially revealing since the breakdown of several bitcoin bubbles have followed an “opposite but equal” theme.
In other words, bitcoin’s price tends to consolidate in a specific pattern when in a bubble state, which eventually breaks down in the opposite direction to a near-identical distance as the height of the pattern.
Using this logic, a bottom for the current bear market can be extrapolated, as explored below.
Symmetrical triangle breakdowns
A symmetrical triangle in technical analysis consists of two simultaneously converging trendlines, and is generally a continuation pattern in nature.
Like many patterns, a rough estimate for a triangle breakout or breakdown target can be predicted.
Generally, the pattern height is either added or subtracted from the breakout/down point to create a target, but with BTC, using the top-to-bottom distance of the base range (percentage) seems to be a more accurate unit of measurement.
A large triangle formed in June-July of 2016 with a 30 percent base range (left frame).