Bitcoin could be in for a 2-month lull going by historical data of BTC’s monthly performance since 2010.
August is Historically Worst Month for Bitcoin Price
In a tweet by “Cane Island Crypto” on Wednesday (June 19, 2019) the bitcoin analyst revealed a trend which shows a cooling period for bull rallies between August and September. This conclusion comes from examining the median BTC monthly returns since 2010.
According to the data, August has been bitcoin’s worst-performing month between 2010 and 2018. With the month less than eight weeks away, the trend might repeat itself causing a temporary lull in BTC’s bullish advance.
Before then, BTC might push on to reach even newer highs in 2019. Based on the evidence, April, June, and July have seen positive aggregated price movements since 2010.
Thus, if the trend holds through, then bitcoin could possibly be in for a continuation of its hot 2019 streak. July, however, holds the lowest positive aggregated median bitcoin return under the period being considered.
Bitcoin has always seemed to suffer seasonal summer declines usually lasting from June 6 to October 8 on the average. According to Seasonax – a trading analysis platform – BTC’s annualized summer declines over the last seven years stands at more than 13%.
This historical trend may play well into expectations of a slight BTC price retrace espoused in recent weeks by the likes of Trace Mayer and Tuur Demeester. Both commentators see BTC experiencing a price dip to somewhere in mid-$6k to mid-$7k region.
Bullish MACD Cross Contradicts Historical Forecast
While history predicts summer doldrums for BTC, technical indicators seem to paint a different picture. In a tweet published by Filbfilb,