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With the recent downturn in BTC and lethargic moves happening, I want to outline what I am forecasting and the reasons why.
Of course, this is subject to change as things happen. But if things happen the way I see them right now, this is a potential scenario of how things could play out. A couple things to keep in mind: This could play out where Wave 2 is lower, closer to 2k, instead of 3k. While I think 3k is going to be close to the bottom, it’s possible it’s not. Use this as general guide if things start playing out like I have outlined.
Reason for the Downturn and the Wave 2 Bottom
The obvious reason is people are capitulating and are dis-interested. Here is another theory I find more interesting: I would imagine large brokers and firms are selling their BTC to book loses. Sounds strange, but look at the timing of what BTC did in 2017. We had a massive run-up in December and started selling off from mid-December to January.
Put yourself in the position of an institution that is holding crypto. You started buying crypto in the 1-2k range, maybe lower. Now you have to report to the IRS that you just booked a massive gain for 2018 and pay a ton of taxes on it. The only way to mitigate this is to show a loss on the books. What do you do? Book loses and then rebuy. Could this be the reason for the next rally?
Wave 2-3 – The Move Up
While it could just sky rocket up like it did in 2017,