Bitcoin (BTC)’s desperate buying frenzy seems to have come to an end as institutional investors that pumped the price begin to take profit. Retail bulls are still expecting a rally to $10,000 and the whales know that which means it is very unlikely to happen. The daily chart for BTC/USD shows the weakness in the price action as the rally has come to a halt after a parabolic run up. This rally is now very similar to the parabolic rally we saw during 2017-18. We all know how that turned out so there is no reason to assume otherwise in this case. There is however more reason to be bearish this time as the sentiment is too positive and the NVT ratio is higher than it has ever been in Bitcoin (BTC)’s entire trading history.
The network value to transaction ratio for Bitcoin (BTC) is like the profit to earnings ratio for stocks. It is a good indicator of how overbought or oversold the price is at a certain level. The NVT ratio peaked out at 213, the highest it has ever been. This is a very bearish development in the face of all the optimism as it shows that there is a lack of real interest in Bitcoin (BTC). Even most bulls would agree that the recent pumps in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) had anything to do with retail buying interest. It was a few big players that propped up the price to sucker in desperate buyers and to liquidate ambitious short positions. So, why then does everybody expect the price to rise to $10,000 and beyond? This is because most people believe we are in the late stages of the 2014-15 cycle which is as misleading as this whole situation could get.